Term structure of interest rates in Morocco: A Descriptive Empirical Analysis
The term structure of interest rates serves as a fundamental indicator of monetary policy transmission, market expectations, and economic conditions. In Morocco, understanding the dynamics of the yield curve and secondary market behavior is crucial for policymakers, investors, and financial institutions. This study presents a descriptive empirical analysis of the term structure of interest rates in Morocco over the period 2004-2025. The analytical framework examines spread differentials across debt instruments, yield curve construction and evolution, secondary market indicators, and the temporal dynamics of interest rates. The analysis reveals key characteristics of the Moroccan interest rate market, including the shape and shifts of the yield curve, spread behavior across maturities, and the responsiveness of secondary market rates to monetary policy signals. Four major specificities of the yield curve in Morocco emerge from the analysis: first, the absence of yield curve inversion throughout the entire study period; second, the captive holding of government securities by domestic institutional investors; third, the dominant role of Bank Al-Maghrib on the short end of the curve through its weekly open market operations; and fourth, the dependence of the term structure on Treasury financing needs. These findings provide valuable insights into the efficiency and depth of Morocco's debt market, highlighting both the strengths and limitations of the current interest rate transmission mechanism, and offering practical implications for monetary policy design and fixed-income investment strategies in emerging markets.
JEL
Classification : E43,
E52, E58, G12.
