INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERESIS IN NIGERIA – ANY EVIDENCE FOR JOBLESS GROWTH? A MARKOV SWITCHING APPROACH
Author: Lawal Wasiu Omotayo*, Zainab Said Suwaid, Zainab Abubakar
Department of Economics and Development Studies Federal University Dustin-ma katsina state.
Published Date: 2024-04-02
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Keywords: Unemployment hysteresis, Institutions, Jobless growth, Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Markov switching dynamic regression.
JEL Classification: J64, O33, J62, E58, C51
Abstract:
Unemployment hysteresis is the persistence rate of unemployment that postdates an initial decline in economic growth. This study seeks to investigate how institutions due to a structural technological change known as jobless growth. In retrospect, the study analyse further, the role of institutions and macroeconomic fundamentals in the mist of high unemployment rate in the country. The technique of analysis is the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression (MSDR) and owing to the structural adjustment programme launched in 1985, the period of investigation spans 1986 – 2021. The preference for the MSDR technique is to investigate regime-switching patterns of output in Nigeria and show evidence for the various slopes, swings and structural changes in macroeconomic policies over the period under investigation. The study found evidence for unemployment hysteresis in Nigeria but this expected result would likely hinge on the incongruence of institutions and macroeconomic fundamentals rather than due to any structural technological change in Nigeria. The required proportions of macroeconomic policies and stable institutions to reduce unemployment, and the lag period to become effective, are further suggested. Defense.
